Eoin Kelly, Business Analyst, Bord Bia-Irish Food Board

The total bovine population in the UK in June 2014 was relatively unchanged compared to 2013 figures, at just over 9.8 million according to Defra’s latest estimates for livestock populations.

While the breeding herd showed some modest growth, there was a contrast between dairy and non-dairy herds. The UK’s dairy herd was up three per cent to 1.83 million head, while the beef herd continued its decline of recent years, falling by two per cent to 1.58 million head. The suckler herd in the UK has now fallen by nearly 88,000 head in the past three years. Over time this has resulted in tighter supplies and lower domestic beef production. However, the increase in dairy cow numbers is reflective of the optimism within the dairy sector ahead of quota removal in 2015.

The results highlight that the number of cattle on the ground over two-years-of-age was up. Male cattle numbers in this category were up almost 10 per cent, or 37,000 head. Similarly the number of other female beef cattle under two-years-of-age in June was also higher compared to a year earlier, up four per cent, or 27,000 head.

However, looking further ahead, fewer male and female cattle under two-years-of-age are reported to be in the herd. Male cattle of less than two years of age are down around 4%, while female cattle of similar age are back 3%. Fewer younger cattle on the ground, combined with a declining breeding population, would suggest a continuing decline in the supply of prime cattle in the longer term.  Any turnaround is unlikely before 2016 due to length of the production cycle.

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