Eoin Kelly, Business Analyst, Bord Bia-Irish Food Board

From the latest United States Department of Agriculture Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report published in October 2014; beef production is set to decline by 5% this year, with some further decline next year. However, lower feed prices and increased dressed weights, compared to their 2013 equivalent, have offset the overall decline in production somewhat. Favourable weather conditions have been persistent for most parts of the country, which is increasing the potential for the expansion of the suckler herd. With lower throughput of cows at processors, this highlights an early indication of herd rebuilding over the next few years.

Stronger prices in the US are expected to lead to an increase in feeder cattle imports from Canada and Mexico. Tight domestic supplies this year have led to a 12% increase in feeder cattle imports from Canada and a 14% increase from Mexico for the first three quarters of 2014. Feeder cattle imports are forecast to reach 2.2 million head by the end of the year, with a further increase expected moving into next year.

The forecast for U.S. beef imports in 2014 indicates an increase of around 19% to reach 2.684 billion pounds by the end of the year. This increase is reported on the back of higher demand due to a decline in U.S. beef production. Import demand is expected to remain strong moving into next year, with a further increase in imports forecast. Imports for the first three quarters of this year have increased from Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and Canada, with favourable exchange rates increasing the Canadian trade. Australian imports in particular have increased 50%, which accounts for more than two thirds of the total increase in imports.

Beef exports are up 1% for the first three quarters of the year, with a small increase expected for the year. Total beef exports are expected to reach 2.6 million pounds, with Japan remaining the top market despite a reduction in volumes this year. Increased shipments to Mexico, Hong Kong and Korea have offset declines to Japan and Canada. Looking ahead to 2015, beef exports are expected to decline in the region of 3%, due to lower supplies and higher US prices.

For more information and for access to the full report please click here.