Peter Duggan, Strategic Information Services, Bord Bia

The general consensus from the recent European sheepmeat forecast working meeting pointed towards lower sheepmeat production and a reduction in flock sizes next year for the vast majority of EU countries.

In France, gross output is expected to drop by around 1% in 2010 following a decline of almost 9% this year to 102,500 tonnes. This will result in imports accounting for 58% of domestic consumption next year.

In the UK, gross production is expected to fall by around 3% to 297,000 tonnes next year, despite a 7% increase in lamb prices this year due to the weakness of the British pound. However, lower domestic consumption is expected to maintain export volumes at around 90,000 tonnes.

Other topics that arose from the discussion included the degree to which New Zealand has utilised their tariff import quota for the beginning of January to the middle of November this year. To date New Zealand has filled 91% of their quota, down 4% on last year levels at 207,700 tonnes, reflecting lower lambing rates coupled with a significant fall in the breeding flock. However, some recovery is expected in 2010.

The other significant supplier to the EU-27 remains Australia, however they have only managed to fill 69% of their sheepmeat quota, down 14% on last year at 13,000 tonnes due to lower production in Australia and the diversification of product to other markets, most notably to the Middle East according to the MLA, while Abare suggest that lamb exports to the US are expected to recover by 8% to 41,000 tonnes next year.

Looking ahead to next year, the Australian lamb slaughter crop is expected to grow by 1% to 21 million head, due to the favourable outlook for lamb prices as producers retain a greater percentage of ewes for breeding, even though the national flock is expected to fall by 4% to 69.2 million head.