Eoin Kelly, Business Analyst, Bord Bia-Irish Food Board

The latest AHDB beef outlook has forecast that beef production is set to rise by over 2% for the full year 2016 with most of this increase coming in the second half of the year.

Focusing on the breeding herd numbers, the June 2015 survey figures recorded a marginal rise in the beef breeding herd to reach 1.6 million. This is the first rise in the sucker herd since 2011. The dairy herd continues to grow with a rise of 3% recorded to reach 1.9 million head.

Calf registrations in 2014 were up almost 2% at 2.61 million head with a further rise of around 3% in 2015 to reach 2.9 million head. This has left a larger number of younger cattle on the ground and is likely to contribute to higher production in the short term. Reduced calf registrations in late 2012 and 2013 left prime cattle supplies almost 2% lower in 2015 compared to 2014 at 1.92 million head. The total number of prime cattle throughputs increased almost 2% last year on the previous year to reach 1.96 million head. A higher proportion of steers was reported with over half of prime cattle throughputs reported as steers for the first time since 1997. In late 2015 the number of cattle on the ground between 6 and 12 months and 12 and 18 months was up over 70,000 and 30,000 head respectively.

Total net production is forecast to be up around 2% on 2015 levels at over 900,000 tonnes due mainly to higher supplies and an anticipated increase in carcase weights. Carcase weights for prime cattle last year were fuelled on the back of improved fodder quality and quantity and lower feed prices.

Looking at trade data, import volumes this year are forecast to be up around 2% but much will depend on the sterling/euro relationship. The pound has weakened recently and the uncertainty of Brexit may result in further weakening throughout the year. The export trade is expected to increase further in 2016 with a greater focus on primal cuts as opposed to carcases.

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