Peter Duggan, Strategic Information Services, Bord Bia - Irish Food Board

According to the USDA global pork production is expected to increase during 2013. Consumption is expected to mirror this trend despite some softening in global trade, which reflects higher output in markets that continue to increase their appetite for pork.

For 2013, global pork supplies are expected to increase by 2% to 107.4 million tonnes. Most of this increase will occur in Asia and the US, with output in Asia being ramped up in particular by China and South Korea. Chinese output is expected to grow by 3% to a record 53.8 million tonnes, reflecting increased hog supplies coupled with some increase in carcase weights. In South Korea, production is expected to jump by 14% to 1.2 million tonnes as the industry continues to recover following the FMD outbreak in 2011.

American pork production is expected to increase by 1% to 10.7 million tonnes as fears over high feeding costs have been allayed somewhat, combined with some anticipated increase in the pig crop. Meanwhile, output in the EU-27 region is expected to fall slightly due to a slightly smaller pig crop following the impact of higher feed costs and newly implemented sow housing requirements.

Global pork consumption is expected to grow by around 2%. The importance of Chinese consumption to the overall market is underlined by the fact that Chinese consumption should account for 51% of global pork consumption during 2013. Significant growth in Chinese consumption has been evident over the past few years, with consumption during 2013 expected to be 11% higher than 2009 levels. Other countries expected to significantly boost consumption levels during 2013 include Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and the US.