Declan Fennell, Meat Division, Bord Bia-Irish Food Board

According to a recent report from EBLEX, most of the increase in sheep supplies will occur in the first half of 2013, before falling back in the second half of the year due to poor lambing conditions this Spring. 

UK sheep supplies for the first half of 2013 are expected to be around 10% higher on last year’s levels at 5.6 million head. This increase is largely attributable to the carryover of hoggets from 2012. However, sheep supplies are expected to fall by around 2% to 6.7 million head during the second half of 2013, this will leave annual supplies just 3% higher at 12.3 million head. The key factors behind the fall in output during the second half of 2013 are discussed below.

UK lamb crop lower due to poor weather

At approximately 15.8 million head, the 2013 lamb crop will be 8% (1.36 million) lower than the 2012 lamb crop.  Despite the breeding flock increasing marginally in 2012, the lamb crop for 2013 is expected to be one of the lowest in many years.  This situation was not helped by poor weather throughout Autumn 2012, which resulted in ewes in poor condition at the time of tupping.  To make matters worse, the heavy snow falls and arctic conditions in January and February together with a damp and cold start to Spring 2013 did not auger well for lambing. 

Average carcase weights back

The fallout of poor weather conditions dating back to summer 2012, and tighter feed supplies that have prevailed since, has inevitability had an impact on the average UK carcase weight. According to EBLEX, the average carcase weight of 19.13kg in March was 5% lower year on year.   In actual terms, carcase weights were back by almost 1kg on the previous year. This fall in carcase weights is expected to leave total mutton and lamb production just 2% higher at 282,000 tonnes for 2013.