Peter Duggan, Strategic Information Services, Bord Bia-Irish Food Board

The global beef market is expected to be characterised by tight supplies amongst key exporting countries throughout 2013. However, exports amongst these countries are expected to recover by around 6%. This greater availability of product is forecast to be soaked up by strong demand from Russia, Asia and the MENA (Middle East, North Africa).

Global beef output amongst the ‘big 5’ during 2013 is expected to fall by 0.5% to 25.7 million tonnes. All of this decline will be driven by US output falling by 4% to 11.3 million tonnes, in response to on-going falling cattle inventories. Elsewhere, strong production growth is expected to materialise in Uruguay, with output forecast to grow by 8% to 555,000 tonnes, reflecting greater availability of supplies combined with better carcase weights. Production is expected to grow by 2% in Brazil and 3% in both Argentina and Australia, although stronger domestic consumption levels will reduce export availability. Most of the increase in exports next year will be driven by higher US shipments, reflecting a fall in US consumption estimated at 3% to 11.3 million tonnes.

European output is expected to fall marginally to 7.63 million tonnes in 2013, following a fall of 5% in 2012. Most of the fall in output is forecast in key producing countries like France, Germany and Italy. This decrease in output will be offset somewhat by a 10% recovery in Irish cattle supplies.

In response to some fall in European output next year, imports are expected to increase by around 8% to 290,000 tonnes, with consumption expected to show some signs of settling down. However, consumption will remain under pressure in key markets such as Italy, France and Spain in light of on-going austerity, as consumers down trade to better value cuts, and in some cases switch to cheaper alternative proteins.

For more information, please click here for the Global and European beef market report.