Alison Ryan, London Office, Bord Bia – Irish Food Board
Key events this week:
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt will battle it out to become Britain’s next prime minister, after a series of votes this week eliminated the other contestants from the race. In final round of voting on Thursday evening, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson’s bitter rival, was knocked out of the contest after coming in third place by just two votes behind Hunt. Suspicions were raised by the fact that Johnson’s vote in the final round increased by just three MPs between the rounds, from 157-160 – despite the fact that at least four of Sajid Javid’s supporters had publically declared their backing for Johnson yesterday afternoon, after Javid was eliminated. Johnson’s campaign team believe that remaining-voting Hunt will make a less formidable adversary than Gove, who was a leading Vote Leave campaigner.
Boris and Hunt will now undertake a long series of hustings events with party members around the country, culminating in a vote in the week commencing July 22 where around 160,000 Conservative party members will decide on who takes over from Theresa May as Tory leader and prime minister.
This week saw Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart and Sajid Javid all eliminated from the contest, in a number of votes over the course of the week. In every vote, Johnson has been the clear winner, receiving between 114 and 160 votes from a total of 313 Conservative MPs in the five rounds of voting.
When pressed by business executives at a private breakfast to on Tuesday, Johnson said his Brexit plan involved leaving the EU on October 31 and only afterwards — during a two-year transition period — renegotiating the Irish backstop. This idea was already dismissed by the EU.
Economic growth in Britain is expected to slow to the lowest levels since the financial crisis as firms run down Brexit stockpiles, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. The organisation has slashed its forecast for GDP growth next year to just 1%, from 1.3%, marking the weakest expansion in the British economy since the 2009 recession that followed the financial crisis.
EU leaders are holding a summit in Brussels on Friday June 21, where taking stock of the Brexit progress will be on the agenda. They will also be meeting to decide the presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council of member states.
Implications for Irish food & drink companies:
The Brexit policy that the new Conservative leader will pursue is still unknown. The threat of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on October 31 has however increased. It is crucial therefore, that Irish food and drink manufacturers continue to prepare for all Brexit possibilities, including a no-deal Brexit.
Looking ahead:
- A summit of EU leaders is taking place on June 21.
- Newly elected MEPs will be taking their seats on July 1.
- A new Conservative Party leader is expected to be elected in the week commencing July 22.
- October 31 is the current Brexit deadline.