The 4 Key Macro Trends of Change by IGD Part 1
August 10th 2020
Fionn Warren, Strategic Insight & Planning, Bord Bia - The Irish Food Board
This article will outline the 4 key macro-economic trends that are shaping the worlds food and grocery industries as written in the IGD 2017 stargazing report. Retail and grocery are ever changing markets with a wide range of factors affecting the constant change. In This part one of a two part series we will look at 2 of the forces responsible for major change and how they are shaping the future of retail and grocery.
Societal Shifts
Societal shifts include a wide range of factors. According to IGDs report by the year 2030 the world’s population will have grown to 8.5 billion driven by growth in developing countries. Urbanisation is going to take place all over the world. IGD predict that the number of megacities will grow from 28 to 41 and will account for 80% of global GDP growth. Ireland doesn’t have any megacities, but Dublin, Ireland’s primate city, is expected to grow,” 426,500 from 1,335,900 in 2016 to 1,762,400 by 2036(CSO, 2017). This is an increase of just over 30%.
Another factor in society shifting is the aging population. This provides new challenges and opportunities for businesses as there will be an increase in demand for healthcare products and services. According to the CSO,” The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2016 level of 629,800 to 1,136,700 (+80.5%) by 2036(CSO, 2017). This is an increase of just over 30%.

Transformative Technology
Technology is going to propel business forward at a staggering rate. Artificial intelligence and automation are believed to play a major role in retail and grocery industries by the year 2030. According to Fujitsu, 11% of Irish business owners believe that AI will have the most positive effect on research and development and product development.(Fujitsu,2018).
According to IGD’s report significant progress will be made allowing robots and drones to fly independently, which will help connect markets and customers alike, IGD also predict that consumers will “favour access to, over the ownership of, products”,
When Fujitsu asked business leaders about technology their organisation has already implemented, “the top three answers were: Cloud (35%) Internet of Things (17%) Automation (9%). ” The above list suggests that Irish businesses and SME’s have been working to put a cloud based infrastructure in place that will allow them to make the most of the data and increased connectivity now available to them.

Implications
As Ireland’s retail and grocery sectors continue t grow. It is clear that with society’s ever changing nature and technology’s limitless growth that the grocery and retail sectors must keep up to date with these changes and be proactive when dealing with customer’s ever changing needs and wants. Irish business owners and entrepreneurs need to be prepared for the future and these figures and projections can help preparation for such change.
References
Accessed on 06/2020 IGD’s four forces of change: STARgazing (updated2020)
https://www.fujitsu.com/ie/imagesgig5/tech-transforming-ireland_tcm64-3656185_tcm64-2750236-32.pdf