Alison Ryan, London Office, Bord Bia – Irish Food Board
Key events this week:
Boris Johnson has pledged to “do or die” and take Britain out of Europe in four months’ time, as polling shows that a no-deal Brexit is the first choice of one in four voters. In one of a series of interviews, he told Talk Radio that Britain would leave the EU on October 31 “do or die, come what may” and vowed to rip up the EU withdrawal treaty, including the Irish backstop.
However, Johnson also admitted in an interview with radio station LBC that a vital part of his Brexit strategy could only work if he struck a deal with the EU, undermining his claim that Britain could execute an orderly no-deal exit.
Johnson reshuffled his campaign team this week, appointing Ian Duncan Smith as chairman. The former Conservative leader has long been one of the leading lights in the European Research Group of hard Brexiteer backbench Conservative MPs. Duncan Smith’s appointment came within hours of Johnson “do or die” commitment.
Johnson has told senior Conservatives that if they are to serve in his cabinet then they will have to sign up to leaving the EU on October 31, even if that means a no-deal exit. His comments suggest that some current cabinet ministers would be unlikely to serve under him, including Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, David Gauke and Rory Stewart, all of whom oppose a no-deal exit.
Pro-Remain MPs are drawing up a new plan to hold back funding from Whitehall departments if the next prime minister tries to take Britain out of the EU without a deal — in an attempt to prevent the hardest of Brexits. The plan is being drawn up by Dominic Grieve, a Tory MP and Labour Margaret Beckett. The pair have put forward an amendment to the routine government finance legislation known as “estimates” which takes place next week. The move is the latest in a series of Commons skirmishes as MPs try to use various archaic devices to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
Police were called to home of Boris Johnson last Friday night following an explosive row with his girlfriend. The Tory leadership frontrunner repeatedly refused to answer question on the matter at various TV and radio interviews, as well as at a husting event on Saturday evening.
Mark Carney gave his most definitive steer yet that he would vote for interest rate cuts in the event of a no-deal Brexit in an attempt to offset likely economic weakness. Giving evidence to MPs on the Treasury select committee, the Bank of England governor said there were “no guarantees” on how the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee would act on rates, but said “it’s more likely [than not] that we would provide some stimulus in that event [of a no-deal Brexit]”. This stems from Carney’s belief that a no-deal Brexit would be a significant shock to demand and would not resolve the uncertainty hanging over business decisions and investment.
Foreign investment into the UK has fallen to its lowest level in six years. A report published last Wednesday by the UK’s Department for International Trade, shows that the number of foreign investment projects into the UK dropped by 14 per cent to 1,782 in the fiscal year ending March 2019, marking the lowest level in since 2012.
Implications for Irish food & drink companies:
The threat of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on October 31 has however increased. It is crucial therefore, that Irish food and drink manufacturers continue to prepare for all Brexit possibilities, including a no-deal Brexit. Bord Bia’s support programmes can be found here. The 2019 Brexit Barometer Industry Findings Report and Action Plan can also now be downloaded from the Bord Bia website. The Action Plan provides practical information and outlines a number of steps that Irish food and drink companies can take in order to mitigate the risks posed by Brexit.
Looking ahead:
- Newly elected MEPs will be taking their seats on July 1.
- A new Conservative Party leader is expected to be elected in the week commencing July 22.
- October 31 is the current Brexit deadline.