Poor weather takes the shine off the BBQ season

The poor weather in Summer 2023 impacted more than our holiday plans, it also put a dampener on meat sales for the barbeque season. This was a theme exacerbated by rising food inflation and the rising costs of living, which has resulted in consumers trading down on meat purchases. The poor weather and more frugal spending patterns have also shifted consumers’ priorities. While consumers still claim to care about environmental issues and sustainable products, these topics have moved down the list of priorities at point of purchase. 

Kantar is the global leader in continuous consumer panels who’s valuable market insights guide businesses to make successful commercial decisions. Their recent synopsis of Irish summer meat trends certainly provided some food for thought. The value of retail meat sales in Ireland recorded an impressive 11 per cent increase in value terms from 2022 levels to total €3.1 million during the 12 weeks ending 09 July 2023. A closer look at the data however indicates that this notable increase in the value of sales was driven by higher retail prices, with that, volume sales of meat declined by just over two per cent during the same period.  

Several measures have been adopted by under pressure consumers to cope with rising living costs including switching stores, reducing consumption and shifting down the protein offering. Unsurprisingly the lower price point of poultry, relative to other proteins, has contributed to the category recording the fastest value growth and has also helped cement its position as the meat category with the largest volume share. In terms of overall sales, beef continues to hold top spot in terms of value share despite some contraction in volume sales. While all the meat categories have recorded some level of decline in terms of volume per trip the staples of mince and rashers continue to retain the highest levels of penetration (a measure of the percentage of households who have purchased a product at least once in a given period), with higher value meat categories and cuts recording declines. Steak sales have however bucked the trend and retained high levels of household penetration despite a higher price point, perhaps a symptom of high food costs outside the home.  

The barbeque season typically provides a welcome boost to the meat sector with the improving weather encouraging more outside dining and social gatherings. While there was some associated uplift in sales recorded during 2023 the weather ultimately impacted the success of the barbeque season. Sales peaked in the first week of June, as Bank Holiday is met with warm weather however, a prolonged period of rain in late June and into July contributed to most summer categories recording a decline. Higher food prices and rising living costs contributed to lower volume sales across the meat categories with a shift towards cheaper ‘crowd pleasing’ propositions such as sausages and burgers with higher value cuts taking a hit in value and volume spends. 

Cross-promotions of meat and other products and appealing value propositions have become increasingly important in driving sales volumes amongst cost conscious shoppers, particularly in the younger demographics. There were several very positive examples of successful promotional campaigns delivered during summer 2023 with an even mix of price reduction and multi-buy mechanics helping to return positive results for most retailer's this summer. There is an expectation of more promotional activities across the meat categories in 2024 as retailers try and identify growth opportunities and use product innovation to counteract continuing economic pressures.  

During 2023, we have seen consumers opting for simplified menus when hosting barbeques which contributed to reductions in volumes and less trips to store. A key opportunity here could be highlighting the opportunity for barbeques to be an affordable treat. “Research shows consumers are continuing to shift out of home spending towards in-home experiences, and retailers need to go beyond the standard burger in a bun with a squirt of ketchup if they are going to capture this end of the market” – BBQ Category Report 2023 The Grocer Magazine. Cost pressured and time poor consumers can also be targeted through meal kits and value added products which meet the growing demands for convenience, affordable and treat elements, particularly attractive to younger demographics which have reduced their spend in meat. 

Price will always be the most influential factor on a consumers purchasing behaviour, particularly during the current period where budgets are being squeezed. While this may have some shorter term impact on volume sales of meat the longer term outlook is for relatively stable meat consumption, with significant opportunities to drive volume sales at particular times of the year- should that be Christmas, Easter or the summer barbeque season. Consumers want high quality meat that has been raised to the highest production standards and promoting this through well planned and executed promotions should not be underestimated in influencing the volume and value of Irish meat sales. 

References: 

Kantar. (2023). Summer BBQ Review 2023. Bord Bia.